National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA
423 fxus66 kpqr 062206 afdpqr Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland, OR or 203 pm pst thu feb 6 2025 .synopsis...temps will remain below normal through feb. 13th with additional chances for light snow showers friday night and saturday morning, with the only chance of any impactful accumulations in the mountains. trending mainly dry sunday through tuesday with any lingering snow showers likely confined to the mountains. chances for snow increase feb 12-13 from the coast to the cascades, however uncertainty is very high regarding exact snow amounts and exact timing. && .short term...now through saturday night...no real precipitation throughout most of the area through friday daytime hours, as the previous low has moved out of the area. a few non-impactful showers in the southern cascades may produce an inch or two of snow accumulations as a different low system off the california coast may create some showers that clip the area, but this should mostly be non-impactful. potential for colder temperatures tonight as easterly wind through the columbia gorge and slight clearing of cloud cover are expected tonight. 20-50% chance of apparent low temperatures tonight in the lowlands dropping below 25 degrees, which would potentially reach cold weather advisory criteria. however, several factors are in place that could somewhat inhibit colder temperatures. persistent high cloud cover is currently over the area, which isn`t expected to move through the area until around the middle of tonight, around 12am friday. even after this cloud cover moves out of the area, dew points are around the mid 30s tonight, which could result in low stratus or even some fog developing overnight, which would prevent radiative cooling. if apparent temperatures were to hit 25 degrees or lower, this would mostly be limited to the coast range and cascades, and only for a few hours at the end of the night. as a result, no cold weather advisory will be issued for now, though if cloud cover begins to clear faster than expected early in the evening, potential will be re-evaluated. friday night brings the next round of moisture back into the region as a fast-moving shortwave trough pushes through, with snow levels between 500-1500 feet when the precipitation arrives. winds flip southerly during friday daytime, hinting that most lowland areas should remain too warm for any real accumulations, though some snow mixing in can be expected friday night. temperatures at 850 mb look to be around -5 mb, and the coast range and cascades could see a few inches of accumulating snowfall above 1000 feet or so. from friday 10pm to saturday 10pm, the coast range sees around 60-70% chance of advisory-level snow (2 inches or more). during the same period, cascades see around 60% of 6 inches or more of snow. potential of winter weather advisories exists for both locations, but with how marginal this is expected to be, will hold off on issuing any headlines for now. once high-res href guidance comes in later tonight, better confidence in whether or not advisories are warranted. regardless of whether or not advisories are issued, anyone traveling over the cascades passes or highway 26 to/from the coast should be prepared for winter driving conditions. snow will gradually taper off going into saturday evening as high pressure builds back into the area. .long term...sunday through thursday...trending mainly dry sunday through tuesday aside from some isolated light showers at times. as offshore flow begins to redevelop on sunday, expect colder temperatures to develop. this means any showers that do occur will have the potential to fall as snow down to the valley floor, however little to no travel impacts are expected due to the light and isolated nature of expected precipitation. the main concern will be cold temperatures, which will likely flirt with or meet criteria for cold weather advisories monday night, tuesday night, and wednesday night. widespread lows in the 20s are likely all three nights across the lowlands, including the coast. throughout the lowlands, expect around a 20-50% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees, except near 70-75% in hillsboro, north plains, banks, forest grove, and the battle ground area. the coast has a 10-20% chance for lows below 20 degrees, except a 75% chance in tillamook. if temps this cold do materialize, there will be at least some concern for bursting pipes, as well as a threat for frostbite and hypothermia for anyone outdoors who is exposed to the cold for a prolonged period of time without adequate clothing. with the colder air in place early next week, will need to watch closely for potential wintry precipitation, especially on next thursday; with increasing easterly winds bringing in cold air on wednesday, as well as increasing pops, potential for winter precipitation exists. uncertainty is very high regarding both precipitation and temperatures, with very large spread in the nbm ensemble extended forecast. if a winter precipitation situation does occur, most ensemble members are showing snow. however, early nbm ensemble guidance for thursday is showing a
Information courtesy of the National Weather Service - NWS Portland...
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