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National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR or
203 pm pst thu feb 6 2025

.synopsis...temps will remain below normal through feb. 13th with
additional chances for light snow showers friday night and saturday
morning, with the only chance of any impactful accumulations in the
mountains. trending mainly dry sunday through tuesday with any
lingering snow showers likely confined to the mountains. chances for
snow increase feb 12-13 from the coast to the cascades, however
uncertainty is very high regarding exact snow amounts and exact
timing.

&&

.short term...now through saturday night...no real precipitation
throughout most of the area through friday daytime hours, as the
previous low has moved out of the area. a few non-impactful showers
in the southern cascades may produce an inch or two of snow
accumulations as a different low system off the california coast may
create some showers that clip the area, but this should mostly be
non-impactful. potential for colder temperatures tonight as easterly
wind through the columbia gorge and slight clearing of cloud cover
are expected tonight. 20-50% chance of apparent low temperatures
tonight in the lowlands dropping below 25 degrees, which would
potentially reach cold weather advisory criteria. however, several
factors are in place that could somewhat inhibit colder temperatures.
persistent high cloud cover is currently over the area, which isn`t
expected to move through the area until around the middle of tonight,
around 12am friday. even after this cloud cover moves out of the
area, dew points are around the mid 30s tonight, which could result
in low stratus or even some fog developing overnight, which would
prevent radiative cooling. if apparent temperatures were to hit 25
degrees or lower, this would mostly be limited to the coast range and
cascades, and only for a few hours at the end of the night. as a
result, no cold weather advisory will be issued for now, though if
cloud cover begins to clear faster than expected early in the
evening, potential will be re-evaluated.

friday night brings the next round of moisture back into the region
as a fast-moving shortwave trough pushes through, with snow levels
between 500-1500 feet when the precipitation arrives. winds flip
southerly during friday daytime, hinting that most lowland areas
should remain too warm for any real accumulations, though some snow
mixing in can be expected friday night. temperatures at 850 mb look
to be around -5 mb, and the  coast range and cascades could see a few
inches of accumulating snowfall above 1000 feet or so. from friday
10pm to saturday 10pm, the coast range sees around 60-70% chance of
advisory-level snow (2 inches or more). during the same period,
cascades see around 60% of 6 inches or more of snow. potential of
winter weather advisories exists for both locations, but with how
marginal this is expected to be, will hold off on issuing any
headlines for now. once high-res href guidance comes in later
tonight, better confidence in whether or not advisories are
warranted. regardless of whether or not advisories are issued, anyone
traveling over the cascades passes or highway 26 to/from the coast
should be prepared for winter driving conditions. snow will gradually
taper off going into saturday evening as high pressure builds back
into the area.

.long term...sunday through thursday...trending mainly dry sunday
through tuesday aside from some isolated light showers at times. as
offshore flow begins to redevelop on sunday, expect colder
temperatures to develop. this means any showers that do occur will
have the potential to fall as snow down to the valley floor, however
little to no travel impacts are expected due to the light and
isolated nature of expected precipitation.

the main concern will be cold temperatures, which will likely flirt
with or meet criteria for cold weather advisories monday night,
tuesday night, and wednesday night. widespread lows in the 20s are
likely all three nights across the lowlands, including the coast.
throughout the lowlands, expect around a 20-50% chance of
temperatures below 25 degrees, except near 70-75% in hillsboro, north
plains, banks, forest grove, and the battle ground area. the coast
has a 10-20% chance for lows below 20 degrees, except a 75% chance in
tillamook. if temps this cold do materialize, there will be at least
some concern for bursting pipes, as well as a threat for frostbite
and hypothermia for anyone outdoors who is exposed to the cold for a
prolonged period of time without adequate clothing.

with the colder air in place early next week, will need to watch
closely for potential wintry precipitation, especially on next
thursday; with increasing easterly winds bringing in cold air on
wednesday, as well as increasing pops, potential for winter
precipitation exists. uncertainty is very high regarding both
precipitation and temperatures, with very large spread in the nbm
ensemble extended forecast. if a winter precipitation situation does
occur, most ensemble members are showing snow. however, early nbm
ensemble guidance for thursday is showing a 

Information courtesy of the National Weather Service - NWS Portland...
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