000
ACPN50 PHFO 172312
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Fri Jul 17 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elida, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 02:13:22 GMT

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172312
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Elida, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central 
portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the 
south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
portions of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
      

...ELIDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of Elida was located near 17.1, -121.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 243 
WTPZ35 KNHC 172019
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
 
...ELIDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 121.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was 
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Elida is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn 
toward the northwest is expected later this evening, followed by a 
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher 
gusts. A very limited window for strengthening remains possible, and 
Elida could become a strong tropical storm. Weakening is expected to 
start over the weekend and continue into early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 172018
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026
2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE  50SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 121.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.9N 128.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 30.9N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 34.2N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 121.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 535 
WTPZ45 KNHC 172020
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
 
The latest ASCAT pass shows that the strongest winds are around 45 
kt, while the most recent Dvorak fixes suggest the winds could be as 
high as 55 kt. While there is no notable change in the structure of 
Elida, with the convection being confined mostly to the east side, 
the intensity for this advisory is being kept at 55 kt. This  could 
be a little generous, however. The ASCAT data also revealed that 
the strongest winds are located in the northern side of the storm, 
and tropical-force-winds extend about 170 n mi to the southeast. 
Thus, Elida is still very asymmetric at this time.
 
Based on recent fixes, Elida's position has been shifted a bit
to the south of the previous track with a initial motion estimated
at 295/10 kt. A deep-layer trough remains entrenched off the west
coast of the United States, which should cause Elida to turn
northwestward and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The track
guidance continues to shift a bit more to the east, thus the
official NHC track forecast has again been nudged in that direction.
 
Elida has a very limited time to strengthen over warm waters and
in a low-shear environment. However, there is a possibility that 
Elida can become a strong tropical storm. The peak intensity has 
been brought down to 60 kt with this advisory again, since Elida 
is running out of time to strengthen. This does keep the intensity 
forecast in-line with the bulk of the guidance. Weakening should 
being around 24 hours due to Elida moving over cooler waters and 
into a region of increasing shear. Elida could lose organized deep 
convection and become post-tropical around day 3.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 19.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 21.0N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 22.9N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 24.8N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 26.9N 128.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1800Z 30.9N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z 34.2N 131.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026 455 
FOPZ15 KNHC 172019
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
20N 125W       34  1  53(54)  23(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
20N 125W       50  X  17(17)  29(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
20N 125W       64  X   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:21:56 GMT

      

      836 
ABNT20 KNHC 172317
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida:
Showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of America and 
portions of the Florida Peninsula are associated with an upper-level 
low and a surface trough. Surface observations indicate that 
pressures are high in the area and that currently there are no signs 
of a surface circulation. However, some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it meanders northward, bringing heavy rain 
to portions of the Florida west coast during the next several days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located near the western Cabo Verde Islands.  The low is producing 
limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms while it moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are 
becoming less conducive, and development of this system is no longer 
anticipated. However, this system will likely produce some gusty 
winds and locally heavy rain over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 02:13:22 GMT