Tropical Weather - Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific, Pacific, and Atlantic from the NWS National Hurricane Center
Current US IR Satellite Loop
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Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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CPHC Central North Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific
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Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:16:17 GMT
782 ACPN50 PHFO 051116 TWOCP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Karina, located about 800 hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN -
Summary for Hurricane Lowell (CP4/EP122026)
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:52:18 GMT
...LOWELL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 04 the center of Lowell was located near 13.3, -161.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane Lowell Public Advisory Number 37
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:52:18 GMT
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 863 WTPA34 PHFO 050852 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 ...LOWELL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 161.9W ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Lowell. Watches could be required for portions of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 161.9 West. Lowell is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast on Sunday. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches) based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 37
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:51:48 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 961 WTPA24 PHFO 050851 TCMCP4 HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 161.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 37
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:53:19 GMT
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 094 WTPA44 PHFO 050853 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 Lowell remains an impressive hurricane this evening. Satellite imagery continues to show a very warm eye surrounded by a symmetric eyewall, although the eye has become slightly more ragged and less well defined during the past few hours. Some slight warming of the cloud tops has also occurred within the eastern portion of the eyewall. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 925 mb, and maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to 141 kt. These data support slightly lowering the initial intensity to 135 kt, making Lowell a Category 4 hurricane. The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions should remain favorable for Lowell to maintain much of its strength during the next 12 to 24 h, with weak vertical wind shear and a moist environment expected along the forecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during this time due to internal structural changes. Thereafter, Lowell is forecast to begin a gradual weakening trend as the vertical wind shear increases and the hurricane begins to entrain dry mid-level air. The rate of weakening is expected to increase by Monday as the shear becomes quite strong. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the westernmost Hawaiian Islands early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially an updated of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 161.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce
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Hurricane Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:52:18 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 862 FOPA14 PHFO 050852 PWSCP4 HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) 1(25) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 2(35) 25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 25N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) 1(35) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) 1(28) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 43(88) X(88) NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 50(65) 1(66) NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 71(85) 1(86) BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 60(62) 1(63) BUOY 51101 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 2(41) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 9(63) X(63) 22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) X(25) 22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 1(31) NECKER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NECKER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 165W 34 1 62(63) 23(86) 3(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 165W 50 X 7( 7) 35(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 165W 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) 25N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 25N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 30N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 30N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE -
Hurricane Lowell Graphics
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:27:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:27:31 GMT -
Summary for Hurricane Karina (CP5/EP112026)
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
...KARINA HOLDS ON TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 04 the center of Karina was located near 21.4, -142.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 36
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 000 WTPA35 PHFO 050842 TCPCP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 ...KARINA HOLDS ON TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 142.5W ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 142.5 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next few days, and Karina is forecast to become post tropical by Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 36
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:17 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 583 WTPA25 PHFO 050842 TCMCP5 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 142.5W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 120SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 142.5W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 142.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 65SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 10SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 142.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 36
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:43:20 GMT
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 000 WTPA45 PHFO 050843 TCDCP5 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 The satellite presentation for Karina continues to look less impressive, as most of the convection on the southern side of the hurricane has dissipated. The combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to take their toll on the cyclone. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC and HFO gave a T4.0/65 kt, and the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates are in the range of 59-65 kt. Therefore, the intensity for Karina has been brought down to 65 kt for this advisory. A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina is steering the hurricane toward the northwest (305/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of days, which should allow the cyclone to gain some latitude as it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest. Then, a more westward motion is forecast before the system is absorbed well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of Hurricane Lowell. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with just a few minor adjustments to the track. Karina is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing southwesterly shear and more dry air. The combination of these elements will hinder the develop of convection in the inner core of the system. The current NHC intensity forecast has Karina weakening to a tropical storm Saturday and becoming a post-tropical low around 60 h. This intensity forecast is very close to the most recent multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN) and is similar to the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 142.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven
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Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 000 FOPA15 PHFO 050842 PWSCP5 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 145W 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN -
Hurricane Karina Graphics
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:22:01 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:22:01 GMT
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
![7 Day Pacific - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-pacific-7d.php?dontcache=1788609032" "7 Day Pacific - Tropical Weather Outlook")
![1 Day Pacific - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-pacific-2d.php?dontcache=1788609032" "1 Day Pacific - Tropical Weather Outlook")
NHC Eastern North Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:16:17 GMT
781 ABPZ20 KNHC 051116 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Karina, located about 800 hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky -
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026)
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
...MARIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 the center of Marie was located near 21.4, -119.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 17
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 ...MARIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 119.7W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 119.7 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 17
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:42:50 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050842 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW. 4 M SEAS....330NE 285SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 17
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:43:51 GMT
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050843 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 Marie currently has a ragged banding eye in satellite imagery, which is open to the north due to a patch of dry air currently located to the north of the center. The various satellite intensity estimates have edged down just a little, and based on them the initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt. The hurricane is now moving northwest or 315/7 kt. The cyclone should continue slowly northwestward for the next two to three days as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. After 72 h, Marie is forecast to encounter a large mid- to upper-level trough west of California. As that happens, the cyclone is likely to become decoupled vertically, with the low-level part of the circulation turning north-northwestward. The new track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and is similar to the previous forecast. As in the previous advisory, it should be noted that model spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days. For the first 24-36 h, Marie will be over seas surface temperatures of 26-27C and in a light vertical shear environment. During this time, dry air entrainment is forecast to cause a slow weakening. The weakening rate should increase after 36 h as the cyclone moves over colder water, and after 72 h strong shear associated with the aforementioned trough should become the final factor in causing the associated convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast has a few tweaks to better follow the overall trend of the guidance, and it calls for the system to weaken until it degenerates to a remnant low around 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 08:43:20 GMT
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050843 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 120W 34 3 15(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) 28(57) 1(58) X(58) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN -
Hurricane Marie Graphics
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:33:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2026 09:33:07 GMT
Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America Tropical Weather Outlook
![7 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-atl-7d.php?dontcache=1788609032" "7 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook")
![1 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-atl-2d.php?dontcache=1788609032" "1 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook")
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:11:19 GMT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051111 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Berg -
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
Published: Sun, 06 Sep 2026 23:11:19 GMT
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30:09 GMT
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Weather Underground
National Hurricane Center