000
ACPN50 PHFO 151135
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Hernan, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by the middle of next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves generally westward across the western portion of the
east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg
NNNN
      

...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM LALA SPREADING OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 15 the center of Lala was located near 17.8, -154.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 000
WTPA32 PHFO 151452
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lala Advisory Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM LALA SPREADING OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 154.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should now be
complete.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Lala.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lala was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 154.6 West. Lala is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Some
erratic motion is likely later today and tonight while Lala
interacts with the Big Island of Hawaii. After passing the Big
Island, Lala is expected to turn westward on Sunday with an
increase in forward speed, with the core of the storm staying south
of remainder of the main Hawaiian Islands and the easternmost
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands through the early part of next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, and Lala could be
near or at hurricane intensity while it is near the Big Island of
Hawaii. Weakening is expected tonight and on Sunday, but some
restrengthening is forecast by late Monday and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Strong tropical-storm-force wind gusts are
occurring on the Hawaiian Islands from the Big Island to Oahu.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Lala can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header
WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning on the Big Island of
Hawaii, with hurricane conditions expected later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in Maui County later today and
tonight, on Oahu tonight and Sunday, and in Kauai County on Sunday.
Wind speeds atop mountains and on the windward and leeward slopes
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
 
RAINFALL: Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20
inches across the Big Island, with maximum totals of 25 inches
possible. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches is expected across eastern
Maui, with totals of 4 to 6 inches, and maximum amounts of 8 inches,
across western Maui and the remainder of the island chain. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lala,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Lala are steadily building along
east-facing shores and will continue to increase through the
weekend. Swells will also build along exposed southern shores as
Lala passes south of the islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000
WTPA22 PHFO 151452
TCMCP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LALA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 154.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE  40SE  30SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 154.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 154.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.7N 155.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE  50SE  30SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 158.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 160.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 163.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.6N 165.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.7N 167.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.6N 170.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 172.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 154.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 197 
WTPA42 PHFO 151453
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

A ragged eye-like feature has formed in radar imagery from the
South Point, Hawaii, radar site, even though Lala's satellite
presentation has not improved much since the previous advisory.
Radar velocities are as high as 55-60 kt between 10,000 and 15,000
ft in deep convection to the northeast of the center. Along with
satellite estimates, these data support holding Lala's intensity at
55 kt.
 
Lala's current motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, but
that is likely to change later today as the circulation begins to
interact with terrain of the Big Island. Dynamical model fields
suggest that the center may get pulled northwestward into or near
the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same time a
leeside trough or broad low forms west of the island. This may
cause a discontinuous track that is reflected in the official
forecast points or track forecast cone. After the cyclone
reconstitutes itself west of the Big Island, it is likely to turn
toward the west on Sunday and continue on that path for several
days due to high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific around the
middle of next week may weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to
turn toward the west-northwest and then northwest, potentially
approaching western portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian
Islands.
 
Lala has about 12 hours left for some strengthening before the
center reaches the Big Island, and the NHC forecast continues to
show the storm becoming a hurricane near the southern coast of the
Big Island. Even if the storm only manages to strengthen slightly,
there is no practical difference between a 60-kt tropical storm and
a 65-kt hurricane, especially since hurricane-force gusts are
expected on the Big Island regardless. Weakening is expected after
the circulation interacts with the Big Island, and it will likely
take a few days for the storm to re-organize. Environmental
conditions appear conducive to support intensification in 3-5 days.
The intensity guidance has not changed much of this cycle, and the
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one.
 
Lala's center is sufficiently well defined in radar imagery that we
plan to start hourly updates at 6 AM HST (1600 UTC) via the
Tropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2). These hourly updates
will continue as long as the center remains well defined in radar
imagery.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of
Hawaii later today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas
of higher terrain. Tropical-storm-force winds are already beginning
on the Big Island, and preparations should now be complete.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also beginning across portions
of the smaller islands and should continue through Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will continue to increase over the Big Island this
morning and then spread westward across the remainder of the island
chain over the weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 154.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.7N 155.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 19.9N 158.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 20.3N 160.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.5N 163.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 20.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 20.7N 167.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 21.6N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 23.5N 172.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 291 
FOPA12 PHFO 151453
PWSCP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LALA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BUOY 51004     34 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 154W       34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 
HILO           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HILO           50 13   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  7  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
18N 156W       34 52   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
18N 156W       50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SOUTH POINT    50 72  10(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
SOUTH POINT    64 17   9(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
21N 156W       34 27  22(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
KAILUA-KONA    50  6  40(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
KAHULUI        34 23  38(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
21N 158W       34  1  55(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
21N 158W       50  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
HANA           34  X   8( 8)  47(55)   X(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
HANA           50  X   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LANAI CITY     34 12  58(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
LANAI CITY     50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  4  43(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
BUOY 51002     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  1  38(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  1  37(38)   4(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
LIHUE          34  X   6( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
20N 160W       34  X   8( 8)  31(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
20N 160W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
21N 160W       34  X   7( 7)  42(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
21N 160W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
BUOY 51003     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  16(29)   X(29)   X(29)
22N 164W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   1(35)   X(35)
20N 165W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
20N 165W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
GARDNER PINN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
20N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   3(28)
20N 170W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
20N 170W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
25N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
 
MARO REEF      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
 
20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)
25N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
25N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
LAYSAN         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)
LAYSAN         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
LAYSAN         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
LISIANSKI      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)
LISIANSKI      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
LISIANSKI      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PEARL/HERMES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:23:00 GMT

      

Issued at 511 AM HST

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151135
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lala, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast of Hilo, 
Hawaii. 

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on 
Tropical Depression Hernan, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southern Mexico near the middle portion of next week. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible, while the 
system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by the middle of next 
week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter 
while it moves generally westward across the western portion of the 
east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg
      

...HERNAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 15 the center of Hernan was located near 16.1, -134.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151431
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
...HERNAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 134.9W
ABOUT 1690 MI...2720 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 134.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Slow weakening is forecast during the few days, and Hernan is 
forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000
WTPZ23 KNHC 151431
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082026
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 140.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 134.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151432
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with
no active deep convection. A recent OSCAT pass showed that the
winds are around 25 kts at most in the northern portions of the
cyclone. Considering a possibility of undersampling and that the
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix had a wind estimate of 30 kt, the
intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and 
drier air, Hernan is expected to continue to weaken and become a 
remnant low later today. The current forecast calls for a slow decay 
of Hernan to a trough in 60 to 72 h in agreement with the global 
models. 
 
The initial motion is 260/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next
few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster
than, the previous track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 16.1N 134.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 16.2N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 16.4N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 16.5N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 16.7N 142.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z 16.9N 144.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 151432
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082026               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:28:47 GMT

      

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 151136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92):
A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level 
winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still 
possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway 
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues 
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Limited 
development of this system is possible over the next day or two 
before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east 
of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:40:13 GMT