320 
ACPN50 PHFO 160532
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lala, located a short distance to the west of South Point, Hawaii.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the middle to latter portions of next week while it
moves generally westward across the western portion of the east
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
      

...LALA REMAINS A HURRICANE AS IT BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Aug 15 the center of Lala was located near 19.6, -157.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 000
WTPA32 PHFO 160852
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lala Advisory Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
...LALA REMAINS A HURRICANE AS IT BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
BIG ISLAND...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS OAHU
AND KAUAI COUNTY ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 157.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 
to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should now be
complete.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 
to 24 hours.
 
Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Lala.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lala was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 157.0 West. Lala is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue overnight. A gradual westward turn
with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, as the
core of the storm remains south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands
and the easternmost Northwestern Hawaiian Islands through the early
part of next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. This intensity of Lala is forecast to remain steady
for a few more hours, followed by a gradual weakening trend on 
Sunday as Lala passes south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands. 
Some restrengthening is possible next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lala can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Damaging winds will persist across portions of the Big Island 
of Hawaii overnight, with the strongest winds expected in areas of 
higher terrain. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread 
westward from Maui County to Oahu into early Sunday, then to Kauai 
County through the day Sunday. Wind speeds atop mountains and on the 
windward and leeward slopes are often up to 30 percent stronger than 
the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some 
elevated locations could be even greater.
 
RAINFALL: Lala is expected to produce additional rainfall of 4 to 8
inches across the Big Island and windward Maui, with maximum storm
total of 30 to 35 inches over the windward Big Island. Across the
remainder of the island chain total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with
maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Lala,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with
Lala, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO
header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Lala will continue to build westward
across the exposed windward waters through Sunday. Swells will also
build over the exposed leeward waters as Lala passes south of the
islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026 000
WTPA22 PHFO 160849
TCMCP2
 
HURRICANE LALA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 157.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 157.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 156.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 157.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 16/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 000
WTPA42 PHFO 160854
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier this afternoon
while passing near South Point of the Big Island. Since that time,
the hurricane has continued northwestward just offshore of the
Leeward Coast of the Big Island, while its satellite presentation
has gradually degraded. Despite the less organized appearance,
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from both HFO and JTWC
remain at 4.0/65 kt, which align with the latest objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is
held at 65 kt.
 
Lala continues to move northwestward just offshore of the Leeward
Coast of the Big Island, with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. A
gradual turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are
expected on Sunday as the influence of the Big Island terrain
diminishes and Lala moves westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue
through early next week. By the middle of next week, a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to weaken the
ridge, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest. Forecast confidence in the track,
however, begins to decrease by day 5 due to increasing cross-track
spread among the guidance. The latest NHC forecast lies close to the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA) aids
throughout the forecast period.
 
Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier while passing near
South Point of the Big Island. The hurricane could maintain its
intensity for a few more hours, but weakening is expected by early
Sunday as Lala continues to pull away from the Big Island. Dry
mid-level air along with moderate vertical wind shear should
contribute to a deterioration of the convective structure and
support additional weakening. Some re-strengthening could occur
after 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the
previous advisory.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of 
Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts 
expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in 
their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts 
to near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of 
the smaller islands through Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain, will continue tonight into
early Sunday over the Big Island and Maui. This heavy rain and flood
risk will continue to spread westward across the island chain
through Sunday.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions
of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.6N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026 000
FOPA12 PHFO 160853
PWSCP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE LALA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HILO           34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SOUTH POINT    34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SOUTH POINT    50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
21N 156W       34 30   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KAILUA-KONA    50 72   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 
KAHULUI        34 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 
21N 158W       34 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HANA           34 39  57(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
HANA           50  3  41(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
HANA           64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34 60   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
HONOLULU       34 61   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34 60   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
LIHUE          34  3   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
20N 160W       34 36  47(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
20N 160W       50  1  33(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
20N 160W       64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NIIHAU         34  1  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
21N 160W       34 28  64(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
21N 160W       50  1  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
22N 164W       34  X   1( 1)  19(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
20N 165W       34  X   X( X)  19(19)  23(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
20N 165W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
20N 165W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  43(43)   6(49)   X(49)
20N 170W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   4(18)   X(18)
20N 170W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)
 
25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)
25N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
25N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
LAYSAN         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LISIANSKI      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
PEARL/HERMES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MIDWAY         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KURE           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS

Issued at 700 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 109 
WTPA62 PHFO 160458
TCUCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN MAIN 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... 
...700 PM HST (0500 UTC) POSITION UPDATE...

Radar data indicate that the eyewall of Lala is located west of 
South Point, Hawaii.

An observation at Kohala Ranch recently reported a sustained wind of 
50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). 

Peak rainfall measurements over the last 12 hours are between 15 to 
17 inches across windward Maui and the Big Island.   

SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 156.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Evans

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2026 08:56:29 GMT

      

Issued at 813 PM HST

      321 
ABPZ20 KNHC 160532
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Lala, located a short distance to the west of South Point, Hawaii.

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. 
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late next week or over the weekend 
while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula 
early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could 
form during the middle to latter portions of next week while it 
moves generally westward across the western portion of the east 
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 09:00:09 GMT

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 160519
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Aug 2026 09:00:09 GMT