000
ACPN50 PHFO 261722
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located in the Central Pacific well east of the Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Genevieve, located well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Well West-Southwest of Hawaii (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is expected to form over the next day or so as this
system moves generally westward at 10-15 mph. This system is
crossing the International Date Line and entering the western
Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future
information of this system can be found in products issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.html

$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN
      

...RECON FINDS FAUSTO STILL A HURRICANE WITH 85 MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Jul 26 the center of Fausto was located near 19.9, -142.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026 000
WTPA31 PHFO 262039
TCPCP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
...RECON FINDS FAUSTO STILL A HURRICANE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 142.4W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Fausto.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
19.9 North, longitude 142.4 West. Fausto is moving toward the west
near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 
984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fausto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO.
 
SURF: Surf generated by Fausto is expected to begin building across
east-facing shores of the eastern end of Hawaii today, spreading
westward tonight into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026 000
WTPA21 PHFO 262038
TCMCP1
 
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 142.4W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  35SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 142.4W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 141.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 144.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.7N 147.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 149.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.8N 152.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 154.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.7N 157.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 162.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 142.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026 000
WTPA41 PHFO 262045
TCDCP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Fausto today 
has found the hurricane is more or less steady state from this 
morning. Their peak 700 mb flight level winds were 86 kt in the 
northeast quadrant, though with a higher minimum pressure of 984 mb. 
On satellite, the hurricane's presentation has stabilized somewhat, 
with cold convective cloud tops trying to wrap around a cloud-filled 
eye after dry air infiltrated the core earlier this morning. A 
standard reduction of the flight-level winds still supports an 
intensity of 75 kt for this advisory.
 
Center fixes from the aircraft also found Fausto's center a little 
south of the satellite estimates, but it continues to move generally 
westward at 280/12 kt. The track philosophy is unchanged from 
earlier, with a low- to mid-level ridge north of Fausto expected to 
steer the tropical cyclone on a west-northwest heading at a similar 
forward speed over the next 3 to 4 days. As Fausto encounters higher 
shear on its path in 36-48 h, convective burst on its downshear side 
might result in some track fluctuation, though ultimately the storm 
will become more vertically shallow, steered increasingly by the 
low-level flow. Compared to the previous cycle, the track guidance 
has shifted a touch south, though some of this change is a 
reflection of the farther south initial position. The NHC track 
forecast was also nudged in that direction, roughly in between the 
reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). On the forecast track, Fausto still 
should pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday night into 
Wednesday with the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall 
remaining north of the islands.
 
Fausto's core continues to battle against dry air intrusions on its 
west side, with the most recent recon fix still indicating an 
eyewall that remains open to the northwest. After the next 24 h, 
westerly vertical wind shear increases quite dramatically, with 
EC-SHIPS showing this shear increasing above 30 kt in 48 h. Thus, 
while gradual weakening should continue in the short term, a faster 
rate of weakening is expected beyond the next day or so. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast now shows Fausto weakening to a remnant low 
in 96 h as the storm loses convective organization, with dissipation 
occurring shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is a bit on 
the high side early on, but falls roughly in the middle of the 
intensity guidance envelope. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of 
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence remains high that swells generated by Fausto will
reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.9N 142.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 20.1N 144.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.7N 147.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 21.3N 149.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 21.8N 152.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 22.2N 154.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 22.7N 157.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.7N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026 000
FOPA11 PHFO 262039
PWSCP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34 77   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
20N 145W       34 94   5(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 145W       50 28  42(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
20N 145W       64  4  25(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
20N 150W       34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Jul 2026 21:22:30 GMT

      

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261722
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fausto, located in the Central Pacific well east of the Hawaiian 
Islands, and on Hurricane Genevieve, located well southwest of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Well West-Southwest of Hawaii (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located well west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands 
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for additional development and a tropical 
depression is expected to form over the next day or so as this 
system moves generally westward at 10-15 mph. This system is 
crossing the International Date Line and entering the western 
Pacific basin. Therefore, this is the last Tropical Weather Outlook 
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future 
information of this system can be found in products issued by the 
Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be 
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan 
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.html

$$
Forecaster Papin
      

...MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Jul 26 the center of Genevieve was located near 13.9, -110.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026 000
WTPZ32 KNHC 262036
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was 
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Genevieve is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A 
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in 
forward speed is expected during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Continued strengthening is 
expected during the next day or so. Genevieve is then forecast to 
start weakening by the middle of this week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will likely reach southern portions
of the Baja California Peninsula tonight or Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026 000
WTPZ22 KNHC 262035
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 170SE  90SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 119.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 110.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026 000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262037
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify today. A symmetric and warm 
eye has cleared out over the past few hours, and is surrounded by 
very cold cloud tops. A partial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass 
that became available after the previous advisory showed a 
contracting RMW with peak winds of 103 kt, supporting previous 
evidence of rapid strengthening. The 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 kt, and objective 
intensity estimates range from 115-122 kt. Thus, the initial 
intensity has been set to 120 kt for this advisory. 

The major hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest, or   295/12 
kt, along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. Genevieve is forecast to continue on a 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion and slow down over the 
next several days as the ridge moves eastward. The latest NHC 
official forecast lies very close to the previous forecast, and 
remains within the tightly clustered ensemble model track data.

Genevieve is expected to strengthen further over the next 12-24 h as 
it remains over very warm sea surface temperatures around 30 C, low 
vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence. SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS continue to show the 
potential for additional rapid intensification in the short-term, 
and the latest NHC official intensity guidance remains near the top 
of the intensity model guidance and close to the HCCA corrected 
consensus aid. However, it is still possible that the peak intensity 
forecast of 130 kt is conservative, given the favorable environment. 
By midweek, Genevieve will begin to encounter cooler sea surface 
temperatures, slightly drier mid-level conditions and a more stable 
environment, supporting steady weakening. Genevieve is now forecast 
to weaken below hurricane intensity at day 5. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.9N 110.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 14.8N 111.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 18.3N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 18.9N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 20.4N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 22.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 262036
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072026               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 110W       50 22   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)  69(73)   8(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)  20(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
15N 115W       34  X  15(15)  13(28)   X(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  69(69)  14(83)   1(84)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  22(54)   X(54)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  15(32)   X(32)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)  14(53)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Jul 2026 21:28:12 GMT

      

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 261720
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 26 Jul 2026 22:33:02 GMT